Can Republicans take back the Senate?

Jul 16, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

The kerfuffle caused by White House press secretary Robert Gibbs' acknowledgment that there are enough seats in play to flip control of the House this fall has eclipsed another interesting political debate: Could Republicans win the Senate majority too?

The answer? Yes -- but it remains a significantly longer shot than the GOP taking over the House.

Senate Republicans need a net gain of 10 seats, which, if history is any guide, will be difficult. The last time one party made double digit seat gains was in 1980 when Republicans defeated nine incumbents and won three more Democratic open seats for a 12-seat pickup. (Thank you Ronald Reagan!)

Still, if the last few elections have taught us anything, it's that history isn't always determinative. (Thank you Barack Obama!)

So, here's a step-by-step guide on how Republicans could -- and we emphasize could -- get the 10 seats they need.

The first four pickups aren't that difficult to see. Republicans are heavy favorites in North Dakota and Delaware and have to be considered in the stronger position in Indiana and Arkansas.

And, the next handful of pickups aren't that tough to imagine either as polling shows Republicans running even (or close to even) in Illinois, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

(That scenario is roughly where most prognosticators see the Senate playing out -- a Republican gain of five to seven seats. Of late, Stu Rothenberg, one of the most prominent political handicappers in the country, has been telling people he believes the Senate is in play, however.)

Grant all of those seats to Republicans and they are still two short of majority status, however. Which means they have to win two of these four states: California, Connecticut, Washington and Wisconsin.

Connecticut seems the longest short of that quartet with a new poll out this morning showing state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal with a 17-point edge over former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

The other three seats are all competitive although in each the Democratic incumbent is very well funded and very well aware of the seriousness of the race -- two factors that make it tougher for Republicans.

(And, don't forget, that Republicans would also need to hold all of their competitive seats including open seat contests in swing states like Missouri and Ohio as well as Florida where if Gov. Charlie Crist wins he could well caucus with Democrats.)

The most likely outcome of the November election is that Republicans come close but a few seats short of the majority, positioning themselves for a 2012 cycle that should be very good to them.

But, a look at the Senate playing field as it stands today reveals that Republicans can make a credible case that the majority is in play this fall -- and that hasn't always been the case this cycle. It would require a table-running of historic proportions but in a political environment as volatile as this one, nothing is out of the question.

As always, the number one ranked on the Line is considered the most likely to switch. Have thoughts of your own on the Line? Offer them in the comment section below.

To the Line!

Coming onto the Line: Florida

Coming off the Line: Washington

10. Florida (Republican controlled): Whether this three-way race remains on the Line will depend on who wins the Aug. 24 Democratic primary between Rep. Kendrick Meek and billionaire investor Jeff Greene. A Greene victory would almost certainly allow Crist to co-opt large swaths of Democrats, which, when cobbled together with independents and some moderate Republicans, could be just enough to put him over the top against former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). If Meek wins the nomination, he is likely to enjoy enough support among traditional Democratic constituencies to keep Crist from getting over the top against Rubio. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Missouri (R): In the second quarter of this year, Rep. Roy Blunt's (R) raised $2.2 million compared to Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's (D) $1.6 million, leaving him with a $900,000 cash advantage over his opponent. (Worth noting: President Obama's Kansas City fundraiser last week, which took in $500,000 for Carnahan, was not included in the Democrat's haul.) The race remains tight, however, and Blunt will be hard pressed to shift the focus away from his years in Washington as a member of Republican leadership. (He has already taken to doing this distancing in his recent TV ads by focusing on his work as teacher!) (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Ohio (R): There's clearly a candidate quality mismatch in the Buckeye State. Former Rep. Rob Portman is one of Republicans' best candidates -- he is a fundraising and campaigning machine -- while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher continues to perplex Democrats with his lackluster cash totals and staff turnover. Despite Fisher's problems, polling in the race shows it to be a nip and tuck affair and Portman's work as U.S. Trade Representative in the Bush Administration is not going to play well with Ohio voters. Portman's financial edge -- he had $8 million more on hand at the end of June -- should send shivers up the spines of Democratic strategists. (Previous ranking: 10)

7. Nevada (Democratic controlled): Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) still isn't all that well liked by Nevada voters but they appear to be willing to give him a second look following former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle winning the Republican nomination last month. In a new Las Vegas Review Journal poll, Reid's unfavorable ratings dropped six points in just a month while Angle's rose by 18 points. Angle's massive fundraising quarter -- she outraised Reid! -- shows that the money will be there for her. But, she must have a better next month than she had a last month if she wants to keep this race in play for Republicans. (Previous ranking: 5)

6. Illinois (D): It's been a roller coaster ride in President Barack Obama's home state over the last few months. First, the failure of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias' family bank had the Democratic nominee looking like damaged goods. Then GOP Rep. Mark Kirk admitted -- eventually -- to a series of misstatements about his military record. Capping off the whirlwind three months was a big fundraising victory for Kirk. He outraised Giannoulias $2.3 million to $900,000 in the second quarter. Both men have major flaws as candidates but Kirk's financial edge should be a cause of concern for national Democrats. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Pennsylvania (D): A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) tied in the race to succeed Sen. Arlen Specter (D). But Toomey's second-quarter fundraising blew his opponent out of the water. Toomey raised $3.1 million and has $4.6 million in his campaign coffers. That's more than double Sestak's current warchest of about $2 million. (Sestak did spend heavily to beat Specter in the primary, however.) It's already turned nasty between the two campaigns. Sestak is urging TV stations to pull down a Chamber of Commerce ad that he argues misrepresents his voting record while Toomey has harshly criticized Sestak for the move. With Sestak yet to go up on TV after the hard-fought primary, the momentum right now appears to be with Toomey. (Previous ranking: 7)

4. Arkansas (D): Just when you thought Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was dead politically, she survived a primary runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She's the underdog again in the general election but the jury is still very much out on Rep. John Boozman's (R) campaign. Boozman easily won the primary thanks to a crowded field and a major geographic edge (he represents the most Republican district in the state), but beating an incumbent senator is another matter. He raised just $623,000 in the second quarter, which even in a cheap state in which to advertise is not good. Even after two very difficult races (the primary and the primary runoff), Lincoln begins the stretch run with a four-to-one cash-on-hand advantage over Boozman. Of course, given the state's ideological makeup and Lincoln's poor job approval numbers, Boozman still could well ride the Republican wave into office. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Indiana (D): Former Sen. Dan Coats allayed some of Republicans' concerns about his candidacy with an impressive -- $1.6 million raised -- second quarter. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) did far less well -- just $600,000 raised -- but does have a slight cash on hand edge over Coats who had to weather an early May primary fight. While President Obama won the Hoosier State in 2008, it has moved strongly against Democrats since then. Combine that with the likelihood that Ellsworth will be running with a national wind blowing in his face and it's tough to see the Democrat pulling out a win. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Delaware (D): New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) was one of the best candidates we have met in the cycle so far. Reasonable, savvy and with just the sort of outsider message that could appeal to voters in an election like this one. The problem for Coons is that he is running against the well-liked and well-funded Rep. Mike Castle (R) who is, without question, the strongest candidate Republicans could have fielded. Coons has a bright future in politics but needs a break or two to pull off what would rightly be seen as a major upset this fall. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. North Dakota (D): Sen. John Hoeven (R). (Previous ranking: 1)

With Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez